Cyber Monday Rebound? Not This Year

by Doug Desjardins

Online retailers hoping for a Cyber Monday sales rebound may get their wish this year--but just barely, according to a new holiday sales survey.

Accounting and consulting firm BDO Seidman is forecasting a slight 1.8 percent bump in Cyber Monday sales, with two-thirds of retailers expecting flat sales. The group's Retail Compass Survey polled CMOs at 100 leading retailers and found that low expectations were the norm this year, even with more retailers offering perks like free shipping. cyber-monday-sale

"Flat sales predictions are a recurring theme this holiday season," said Ted Vaughan, a partner with BDO Seidman, adding that retailers are spreading out their sales promotions this year and putting "less emphasis on Cyber Monday than in years past."

But it's not as if they're giving up on Cyber Monday entirely. A majority of CMOs (55 percent) said they will focus most heavily on email promotions this year to reach both online and store shoppers and 16 percent will offer free shipping for online orders. But on the flip side, 65 percent of CMOs expect Cyber Monday sales to be flat, with only 32 percent expecting an increase and 3 percent forecasting a drop in sales.

Those estimates are based in part on third quarter e-commerce sales, which fell 2% to $29.6 billion, according to research firm ComScore. It reported a 5-percent decline in July sales, a 1-percent drop in August, and flat sales for September. "At least it's going in the right direction," said ComScore chairman Gian Fulgoni. He added that ComScore expects "positive growth" for the fourth quarter "driven by comparisons being easier, not because inherently we're seeing any strength in consumer spending."

The fact that Cyber Monday falls on Nov. 30 this year, the last day of the month, is prompting retailers to get an early start on promotions. That trend showed up in Target's Nov. 17 conference call with analysts. CEO Greg Steinhafel said that Target.com is planning a "one-day sale at Target.com on Thanksgiving Day" along with its "compelling Cyber Monday deals." And Target and Wal-Mart are waging an online sales war that began Nov. 14 with sharp discounts on DVD pre-orders and Blu-Ray discs.

If Cyber Monday sales do inch up this year as expected, it will be hard to use any increase as a barometer for future holiday sales. Cyber Monday got things off to a roaring start last year with a 15 percent increase in sales - according to ComScore - but went downhill from there, falling 3 percent for the holidays.