by Doug Desjardins
Shoppers looking for the same deep discounts and giveaways they saw on Black Friday in 2008 may be in for sticker shock this year as retailers adjust to the changing retail landscape.
According to research firm Accenture’s annual Holiday Shopping Survey, consumers have become so accustomed to price cuts that their expectations may be out of line with reality. The survey of 526 U.S. consumers showed that 52 percent plan to shop on Black Friday this year, compared to just 42 percent in 2008–and they’ll be looking for deals. 
A total of 86 percent said they won’t make a purchase on Black Friday unless an item is discounted at least 20 percent, and 25 percent say they won’t be moved by anything unless it’s discounted by 50 percent.
That’s a tall order for retailers, whose desperation in 2008 prompted them to slash prices just to move product off shelves. But this year, they’ve adjusted to the slowdown by cutting back on orders and keeping inventory tight. That change was evident in a report from the National Retail Federation that said retail imports to the U.S. dropped 18 percent in September to their lowest levels since 2003.
Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture’s Retail Practice division, said consumers and retailers may not be on the same page this year. “Holiday shopping in 2008 was defined by huge discounts that were available and available very early in the shopping season,” said Hoffman. “However, retailers will be very reticent to offer such generous incentives in the face of rising commodity costs.” She added that retailers may be able to bridge the gap by using “the right consumer data to offer the value shoppers are looking for without destroying their margins.”
Nevertheless, there will be door buster deals out there. The first retailer to leak Black Friday deals was Office Max, which will be selling an Acer Aspire Netbook for $149 and a Memorex portable DVD player for $30. Wal-Mart raised the bar for mass merchants by announcing it will lower the price of 100 toys to under $10 and sell pre-order hardcover books for $8.99. Executives also said the chain “will not be undersold” by any competitor during the holidays.
Toys R Us has also shown signs it will ramp up promotions on Black Friday. A story that leaked in mid-October said Toys R Us will open stores from noon to 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving for the first time and open stores again at midnight on Black Friday.
But they may be the exceptions to the rule for Black Friday this year. A survey of dozens of retail chains conducted by The Hay Group showed that only 35 percent plan to make Black Friday their biggest promotional day of the year compared to 45 percent in 2008. And retailers are well aware that high unemployment, which hit 9.8% at the start of October compared to 6.2% last year, is having a huge impact on shoppers.
Resources
Holiday Shopping Season to Start Early but Discounts May Disappoint
Walmart Announces Hundreds of Millions in Price Reductions
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