by Doug Desjardins
During the past 12 months, few retail channels have taken a harder hit than department stores. But the higher-end, shopping mall-based chains are hoping that a breakout Black Friday will mark the end of a long slump and bring consumers back into stores. 
And though it’s too early to tell, consumer sentiments indicate that more people will shop at chains like J.C. Penney, Nordstrom’s and Macy’s this fall. A survey from the NPD Group showed that apparel was the #1 item consumers intend to buy this year, with 49 percent including it on their lists, followed by other department-store staples like fragrances and electronics.
“The survey results point to a return of more gifts being made of sweaters, fragrances, books, movies and wallets again,” said NPD Group chief industry analyst Marshall Cohen. “We are also seeing makeup and TVs showing signs of growth.”
Cohen expects more consumers to return to department stores after spending last year bargain hunting in mass merchants and other discount retail channels. “This year, shoppers will start at the bottom but they won’t stay there,” said Cohen. “They will move up to mid- and high-end sellers for deals on better quality and variety of product.”
Burlington Coat Factory is already promoting its Black Friday specials with 70 percent off select jewelry, $10 toys in its expanded toy department and 80 percent off outerwear like wool coats. JCPenney is likely to repeat its promotion from 2008, when it opened its stores at 4 a.m. and offered limited-time bargains during the first few hours. And Macy’s and Nordstrom are expected to open by 6 a.m. and focus more on clothing essentials rather than discretionary items.
And department stores are heading into Black Friday with some momentum. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), chain store sales rose 2.8% for the week ending Oct. 17, the first positive week since the summer of 2008. While he acknowledged that the year-to-year comparison was easy given the state of the economy in October 2008, ICSC chief economist Michael Niemira noted that “consumers shopped late into the week, helping to push up the weekly performance.” Another encouraging sign was a report from Macy’s that online sales in September jumped 15 percent despite a 2.8 percent drop in overall revenue, a sharp hike that suggests the department store chain will emphasize online sales this year.
But the results of an NPD Group survey show that department stores will have to work hard to get their share of Black Friday traffic, with the number of consumers who plan to start their shopping on Black Friday weekend this year down 3 percent from 2008.
Footnotes
Where do Consumers Tell the NPD They Will Shop This Holiday?