by Robin Fiedler

Planning any holiday travel? Still looking for a cheap flight? Air travel is down from last year at the same time, but prices are increasing as I write this. Airline industry experts say last-minute holiday travelers are going to experience sticker shock. 

The price-comparison site that also features a flight search FareCompare.com ’s CEO Rick Seaney recommends buying your ticket before the end of October for the best holiday deals. He also notes which days not to travel on for “finding the cheapest flight around Thanksgiving and Christmas.”

Most expensive days - Wednesday before Thanksgiving and Saturday after Thanksgiving. Sunday before Christmas, Christmas Day, and the Sunday after Christmas (Seaney).

2009 Holidays - this year the airlines have added a $10 surcharge (luggage or no luggage) each way for traveling on peak days. Seaney notes, “The dates that will be affected by the surcharge this holiday season are November 29 - November 30, December 19, December 26 - December 27, and January 2 - January 3, 2010″ (Seaney).  Ouch! That’s an extra $20 added after the fare quote.

In the one-month period from September to October, typically cheap flights have increased 6 to 10%, reports Michelle Higgins in the NY Times. Higgins’ article dated Oct. 16 notes, “In recent weeks, some flights have risen even more. From New York, a round-trip American Airlines flight to Chicago that cost $354 on Sept. 14 was $540 on Thursday, a 52-percent jump, according to Yapta.com, which tracks fares.”

Air travel costs less than it did the same time last year, but last-minute holiday flight prices are not expected to drop. Air travel demand is down overall. The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics recorded that passenger travel decreased by 3.4% from July 2008 to July 2009, down by 2.4 million passengers. BTS adds, “July was the 16th consecutive month with a decrease in passengers from the prior year.” What does this mean for holiday travel prices?

Last year, airlines were not prepared for a decline in passengers, so prices dropped to fill seats. In 2009, airlines are too well-prepared. Flights in many top cities have been cut back drastically. Seaney estimates that in “the top 50 busiest cities there was an average drop in seats of 3.4% with 80,000 fewer seats this year than the day before Thanksgiving last year.”

Not every city was cut back though; airlines added flights to some areas. Seaney lists the winners and the losers. “The biggest loser with over a 23% city cutback was Delta Air Lines hub Cincinnati, closely followed by Hartford, Tampa and St. Louis. On the flip side, the big winner by a long shot was Milwaukee with a whopping 29% increase in seats.”

Just remember when you are deciding whether that airline fare is worth the price to travel to visit friends and family, it’s not a cheap holiday that counts. The trip is about the memories of being with friends and family on Thanksgiving and Christmas:  priceless. Whoops, guess I stole that from American Express! :)  Here’s wishing you the best holiday travel deals!

References

Higgins, Michelle. “Holiday Travelers Who Wait to Book May Pay More.” The New York Times. 16 Oct. 2009. MIT: The Tech Online Edition. http://tech.mit.edu/V129/N45/long2.html

Seaney, Rick. “Finding Cheap Tickets for Thanksgiving and Christmas Holiday Travel Season.” FareCompare.com. 10 Sept. 2009. http://www.farecompare.com/articles/holiday-travel-2009-guide-for-buying-cheap-holiday-flights/

Seaney, Rick. “Holiday Travel - Seat Cutbacks for Thanksgiving 2009.” FareComapre.com.  http://www.farecompare.com/articles/holiday-travel-flight-cutbacks-for-thanksgiving-2009/

United States. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. “July 2009 Airline Traffic Data: System Traffic Down 3.4% from July 2008.” Research and Innovative Technology Administration: US Department of Transportation. 16 Oct. 2009. http://www.bts.gov/press_releases/2009/bts048_09/html/bts048_09.html

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