by Doug Desjardins
In 2008, people who waited until the last minute to book holiday travel found great deals as falling fuel prices and a crumbling economy drove prices down. But consumers looking for a repeat in 2009 shouldn’t hold their breath.
The unique set of circumstances that produced bargains last year also created major changes in the airline industry. The most significant change is that airlines have cut back on flights and eliminated some routes entirely in an effort to cope with lower demand. That’s created a finite number of seats available for travel year-round and that reduction will be most noticeable during the peak travel periods around Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“You’re going to have less availability to choose from and any of the lower fares and special fares you see are capacity controlled,” said Janet Stevens of AAA Travel Services. 
The reduction in available seats this year will be significant, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Based on available schedules and flight plans of U.S. airlines, the IATA predicts there will be 12.5% fewer seats available in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to 2008. The cuts were made to adjust to a sharp drop in both business and leisure travel that’s reduced global airline revenues by 15% this year and has the industry on pace to lose $11 billion in 2009.
And even though airlines are expecting fewer people to travel by air this year- about 4% less than last year according to the IATA - it still means fewer seats and less availability. That’s why travel experts are advising consumers to look for a good deal early and book a flight when you find the price you want. And they add that procrastinating this year could be a dangerous game.
Bing Travel’s Joel Grus warns that fares this year “will start off low and increase as the holidays get closer” especially if you are a traveler tied to specific travel dates. Rick Seaney of Farecompare.com offers similar advice and says that holiday travelers “should be shopping now or buying before the end of October.”
According to Bing Travel, as of mid-September the average price for a round-trip ticket for travel during Thanksgiving was $327, a 20% decline from the same time last year and an indication that fares may not get any lower. Analysts say the only exceptions to the “don’t procrastinate” rule this year are people who are flexible on their travel dates and can book flights on the slowest days of the week for air travel, which are normally Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Footnotes:
COUPON TIME
Don’t wait–book your seats now for holiday travel. And don’t forget to check our Holiday Deals page for the best prices on everything travel-related!