Back-to-School Sales Due to Jump

by Doug Desjardins

After a disappointing back-to-school sales season in 2009, retailers are looking forward to better days this year as consumers ramp up spending.

According to a survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF), the average family will spend $606.40 this year on clothing, supplies, electronics and other back-to-school staples, a big jump of 11 percent from 2009 when the average family spent $548.72. The forecast is also a 2-percent increase from 2008 and a sign that spending is beginning to return to pre-recession levels.

“We are encouraged by the fact that parents are eager to start their back to school shopping this year, but the industry still remains cautiously optimistic about recovery,” said Matt Shay, NRF president and CEO. “As the second half of the year gets under way, retailers will gauge their customers’ spending appetites, which often serve as a bellwether for the all-important holiday season.”

Shay said retailer optimism has been tempered by slower-than-expected sales in June, which made industry analysts wary of another dip in spending after retail sales rebounded earlier this year.

Another forecast from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) predicts a smaller increase in sales. The group that tracks chain stores expects sales to increase 5.4 percent after a 2.8 percent decline in back-to-school sales in 2009.

“Based on the arithmetic alone, the expected July jump in back-to-school spending could be extremely strong,” said Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the ICSC.

“Layer on some fundamental improvement in the consumer economy, including some pickup in the pace of earnings growth, and we should see a strong 7.6 percent rise for July, continued strength in August with a 5.7 percent increase and a moderate 3 percent rise in September back-to-school spending.”

According to the NRF survey, spending on apparel will make up more than 35 percent of total spending, with the average family shelling out $225.47. That will be followed by an average of $181.60 on electronics and computer-related products, $102.93 on shoes and $96.39 on school supplies.

More families are expected to make their purchases on line this year as well. A survey from BIG Research expects 30.8 percent of households to do some of their shopping online, compared to 22.2 percent in 2009.

“Many of today’s shoppers are smarter than any other generation before them when it comes to finding the best price,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategic initiatives for BIG Research. “The affordability of online shopping gives parents an extra edge over the sometimes expensive back-to-school shopping season with price comparison options, free shipping offers and even coupons.”

The study shows that even people who buy in stores will use online price comparisons this year, with 30.3 percent of parents saying they will compare prices online, up from 26.4 percent in 2009.

Resources

Retail Sales Dip Trims Merchants Hopes for Back-to-School Season

More Households to Shop Online for Back-to-School Goods this Year

One Retail Sector Defies Sluggish Economy