by Doug Desjardins
Retail trends for Valentine's Day will shift this year, though the changes will be more a function of the timing of the holiday than the slow economy. 
Research firm IBIS World is forecasting a 3.3-percent increase in consumer spending, a total of $17.6 billion for Valentine's Day, a slight bump over a subpar 2009. And the increased spending will be weighted more toward non-traditional categories due to the fact that it falls in the middle of a three-day weekend.
"Because Valentine's Day lands on Sunday, restaurants are likely to gain traffic throughout the entire weekend," said Toon van Beeck, a senior analyst with IBIS World. "Furthermore, because President's Day is on the following Monday, many consumers will be able to travel over the three-day weekend, further boosting sales."
That's part of the reason IBIS is expecting sales to decline in what are typically strong categories. The firm expects sales of flowers to drop 5 percent to $1.26 billion and jewelry sales to decline 5 percent to $1.31 billion. Candy sales are expected to fare better, but still fall 1 percent to $3.47 billion. Spending on greeting cards will also be sluggish, but IBIS is projecting a 2-percent increase in sales of intimate apparel. Clothing sales are also projected to increase 2 percent to $1.13 billion.
IBIS expects the big winner this year to be the restaurant industry, and it's forecasting an 8-percent increase in restaurant sales of $8.51 billion. Hotel revenues will also get a welcome boost with revenues projected to increase 2 percent over the long weekend. Several hotel chains, such as Renaissance Hotels and Las Vegas hotels owned by MGM including the MGM Grand, are promoting Valentine's Day with special packages and low rates for couples looking for a weekend getaway.
As usual, retailers are using Valentine's Day to promote sales of traditional gift items. Jewelry store chain Zale's is offering 10 percent off storewide and has a sterling-silver pendant reduced from $119 to $29.99. Target has lowered prices on hundreds of gift items during a two-week sale combining the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day, and Macy's is promoting the holiday with price cuts as part of its annual National Wear Red Day sale.
But analysts are warning retailers not to expect too much from shoppers this February. "Many retailers see Valentine's Day as an opportunity to kick start the new year, but unemployment and the continued uncertainty of the economic recovery will hamper growth and expansion,"said van Beeck. That view is shared by the National Retail Federation (NRF), which is predicting that the shoppers will be spending only 50 cents more on Valentine's Day this year than they did in 2009, with the average shopper expected to spend $103 compared to $102.50 last year.
Resources
Retailers Expect Love on a Budget this Valentine's Day
Las Vegas Hotel Valentine's Day Deals
Valentine's Day Spending Shift Suggests Consumers Loosening Up on Spending
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