At this time last year, apparel retailers were preparing for a slow year following a tough holiday season and even tougher first two months of the year. And retailers got what they expected, with apparel sales dropping 5.1 percent in 2009, according to the NPD Group. 
This year, retailers are heading into spring with a brighter outlook as consumers slowly begin to regain confidence. The rebound started in the fourth quarter of last year as the sharp decline in sales began to slow down.
"In the fourth quarter of 2009, the women's market slowed its decline and bucked the total apparel trend with only a 3 percent decline," said NPD Group chief industry analyst Marshall Cohen. "While still not positive growth, it was a sign that momentum is shifting. And for the fashion industry, this is a very important sign because as go women shoppers, so goes the total fashion market."
Research firm ForecastIQ is also predicting a bounce for apparel retailers. Its forecast for March and April predicts that clothing retailers Ross, TJX and Aeropostale are "almost certain" to see an increase in sales and that American Eagle, Nordstrom and Old Navy are "likely to see an increase."
Apparel specialty retailer Kohl's provided further evidence that sales are rebounding when it reported net income of $431 million for its quarter ended Jan. 31. The 1,058-store chain of clothing stores also reported a 4.5 percent increase in same-store sales, a key barometer of where the market is heading. "Things are looking good at Kohl's," said Patrick McKeever, a retail analyst with MKM Partners. "It seems like Kohl's has had more broad based improvement across regions over the past couple of quarters and they really play more into moderate consumer recovery than other retailers."
Even higher-end retailers are seeing sales turn around. Luxury retailer Saks reported that sales rose 7 percent in January and rival Nordstrom's reported a 14-percent increase in comparable-store sales in January, though they were compared to terrible sales numbers in January 2009 when the sales environment for high-end retailers was at its worst. In another nod to an improving economy, Saks said it plans to offer fewer promotions this year to improve margins. Other retailers are expected to follow suit as tighter inventory controls and a pent-up need for apparel among consumers combine to improve conditions.
And the relatively normal tone of late February winter clearance sales was another good sign. Both JC Penney and Macy's held clearance sales the last weekend of February with prices marked 30% to 70% off select items, a far cry from the marathon clearance sales retailers held last year as they unloaded winter apparel purchased before the economy took a nosedive in late 2008.
Resources
Study: Women Starting to Buy Apparel Again
Is the Retail Revival Real or Just a Dead Cat Bounce?
COUPON TIME
Our selection of clothing coupons can't be beat! Start here before you start shopping.
