Retail Sales for November 2009 Ho-Hum

by Robin Fiedler

Some sales are down, some sales are up, and the numbers for sales from the big discount and superstores are not yet included, but the overall conclusion is that moderate increases and decreases that helped retailers at least avoid another momentous drop in sales like last year, even if it's not a recovery. black-friday-sale

Here are the ups and downs. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reports that NRF industry-defined retail sales in November, adjusted seasonally, are up 0.6% from October 2009 but down 0.5% from November 2008. With an increase of 2.8%, electronics and appliances had the highest monthly increase from October 2009.

The ICSC's "US Retail Sales History" table lists the biggest winners in year-to-year sales as "nonstore retailers," up 8.1%, and health & personal care, up 3.7% from last year. The biggest losers were building materials, garden & supply, down 9.3% and furniture & home furnishings, down 7.9% from last year. Department-store sales also decreased 4.7% from November 2008.

The National Retail Federation estimates a slightly higher 0.8% drop in November retail sales from 2008 and the same 0.6% increase in sales from October 2009. NRF emphasizes, "General merchandise stores saw positive gains of 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from October and increased 1.2 percent unadjusted from November 2008. Health and personal-care store sales rose 0.3 percent unadjusted month-to-month and jumped 4.5 percent year-over-year."

Although a month-to-month increase is a good sign, the year-over-year indicates that retail is not recovering from last year's plunge. NRF notes, "Sporting goods, book, hobby and music stores also saw a slight month-to-month increase of 0.3 percent, though year-over-year sales dropped 1.3 percent." To its credit, the overall decrease in retail sales is in line with NRF's earlier prediction of a 1% decline in 2009 holiday retail sales.

Another industry researcher, ShopperTrak reports, "U.S. foot traffic for the month of November fell 6.1 percent while the company's National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) reported retail sales slipped a very slight 0.1 percent for the same period." The 6% drop is in comparison to shopping traffic in November 2008, and ShopperTrak attributes the drop to increased internet shopping and more mission-oriented shopping combined with less browsing. Interestingly, its numbers indicate that fewer shoppers are spending more per visit.

As we close in on the last few shopping days before Christmas, consumers may take advantage of the last-minute sales and discounts geared toward clearing out retailers' inventory before the quiet month of January starts. It seems to be a shoppers' market.

Sources

"November Sales See Month-to-Month Growth, Offering Retailers Encouragement for Holiday Season." The National Retial Federation. 11 Dec. 2009.

"Total U.S. Foot Traffic Falls 6.1 Percent for the Month of November; Sales Slip 0.1 Percent." ShopperTrak. 9 Dec. 2009.

"US Retail Sales History." Internal Council of Shopping Centers. 11 Dec. 2009.