by Doug Desjardins
Analysts agree that online holiday sales are going to increase this year after declining in 2008, but the forecasts vary wildly from nearly flat sales to a double-digit increase.
The most optimistic forecast comes from Shop.org, the digital division of the National Retail Federation (NRF), which is predicting a robust 15 percent increase in sales this year. "People view the Internet as the place to get really good deals," said Scott Silverman, executive director of Shop.org. "During a recession, it's even more so." 
An NRF online shopping survey showed that 78 percent of adults will shop online this year for some gifts and 16 percent will do all their shopping online. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of people 65 and older also plan on buying at least one gift online this year. "It (online shopping) is fairly mainstream and every year we see the demographics are getting more like (regular) shopping," said Silverman.
Other research firms aren't so bullish about an increase in sales. After reporting a 2-percent drop in third-quarter online sales of $29.6 billion, research firm ComScore is expecting a 0- to 5-percent increase in online holiday sales. ComScore spokesman Andrew Lipsman said that the increase will be driven more by a comparison to last year's terrible sales numbers than an actual increase in spending. "Though consumer attitudes are starting to shift, the behavior isn't there yet," said Lipsman.
A Forrester Research forecast stakes out the middle ground with a prediction that online sales will grow 8 percent during the holiday season. The forecast is based in part on a survey showing that 94 percent of consumers who made a purchase online during the past three months plan to buy online during the holidays, up from 92 percent last year.
"Given last year's slumping sales, retailers are up against less aggressive comps this year, which accounts for a positive 2009 holiday outlook," said Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. After seven consecutive years of double-digit sales increases, online sales dropped 5 percent during the holiday season in 2008, a result that surprised retailers and made them more cautious heading into the 2009 holiday season.
Online retailers should benefit from travelers having easier access to the Internet while on the road during the holidays, thanks to a free promotion that Google launched in early November. Google launched free Wifi service in 47 U.S. airports on Nov. 10 in a deal that's good until Jan. 15. Google said the offer will allow travelers to pass the time at airports more productively while they wait for flights. The promotion includes large airports like Miami International and small regional ones like Gallatin Field Airport in Bozeman, Montana.
Resources
Forrester Predicts 8 Percent More Holiday Joy
Google Providing Free Airport WiFi
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