by Robin Fiedler

Shopping for clothing is not the same as shopping for electronics. On Black Friday, we may complete our electronics gift list for the holidays early, but clothing, well, clothing is a bit trickier. We tend to buy clothes throughout the holiday shopping season into the New Year. Will this holiday season be all about buying clothing?

Historically, apparel sales increase as the holiday approaches. In a 2006 Knowledge@Wharton article, Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis at MasterCard SpendingPulse notes, “Apparel sales do not traditionally kick into full force until the last week of the season, when 25% of holiday clothing is purchased, says McNamara. Jewelry sales also come late, with 34% occurring in the last five days of the season. ‘That’s when the real panic sets in.’”

In 2008, apparel sales experienced some of the deepest drops. Dr. Anthony L. Liuzzo Professor of Business and Economics and Director of the MBAProgram at Wilkes University explains, “Apparel sales have been volatile, losing some ground in 2001-2005, but showing signs of life in 2006-2008.” Liuzzo cites a 2008 Wall Street Journal report that lists the percent drop in sales from 2007 … “footwear, minus 14 percent; men’s apparel, minus 14 percent; women’s apparel, minus 23 percent.”

For 2009, the National Retail Federation predicts a 1% decrease in overall holiday retail sales; however, Neilsen, Deloitte, and Retail Forward predict flat holiday sales compared to 2008. For apparel sales, “Retail Forward predicts a 2% decline in apparel sales (marking an improvement from last year’s 9% drop),” according to Marketing Charts.

But as the October sales are being tallied, the predictions could all be wrong. In a November 4, 2009 New York Times article, Stephanie Rosenbloom interviewed McNamara who now reports “that sales of women’s apparel increased 0.6 percent in October, the first positive figure since August 2008.” The increase over last year’s sales is definitely a good sign, but “still 12.2 percent lower than in the heyday of consumer spending, in October 2007,” writes Rosenbloom

California retailers, such as Target, Costco, J.C. Penney and Kohl’s, are experiencing increased consumer spending. “McNamara said apparel sales on the West Coast increased 2.2 percent in October.” Rosenbloom also writes that “Over all for the industry in October, apparel sales increased 3.4 percent compared with the period a year ago, luxury goods rose 6.5 percent, jewelry increased 7.2 percent, and department store sales declined 1.5 percent, according to SpendingPulse.”

And it’s not just good news for brick-and-mortar, but for online shopping as well. Rosenbloom’s biggest retail news is that “E-commerce was the most robust sector, increasing 18.7 percent - the third consecutive month of double-digit growth - because of strong sales of small, low-price goods.” What do the increased sales indicate? Consumer confidence is increasing; they are shopping in larger numbers even before the official start of the shopping season on Thanksgiving.

Will the trend continue on Black Friday? Apparel sales are set to be among the best deals on Black Friday, with 50% and more off. Sears, Kmart, Target, Kohl’s and JCPenney are offering up some irresistible deals. Unlike popular electronics items which will be more difficult to find in stock, expect to find shelves and racks loaded with clothing with deep discounts.

Resources

“Holiday Sales Expected to Decline 1% in 2009.” Marketing Charts. 8 Oct. 2009.

Liuzzo, Anthony. “Holiday Retail Sales Forecast: 2009.” Wilkes University

“Retailers Are Trying to Avoid the Christmas Crunch, but Consumers Aren’t Buying It” Knowledge@Wharton 13 Dec. 2006.

Rosenbloom, Stephanie. “In October, Signs of Life at Retailers.” The New York Times. 4 Nov. 2009.

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