by Robin Fiedler

The top three toys for 2008 were Elmo Live, Bakugan Battle Brawlers, and Ultimate Wall*E, while the top three electronics were digital picture frames, MP3s or iPods, and GPS Navigation Systems, according to Michael P. Niemira, staff vice president, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers, Inc. (ICSC).  The hot electronics gifts may remain in demand for 2009, but as we know, the “in” toys change from year to year.

In an ICSC 2008 survey of gift-buying plans, 12.7% intended to purchase clothing. Gift cards came in at a close second at 12.5%. Toys were third at 11.7%, and music, CDs and DVDs came in fourth at 9.6%.  Popular clothing items were cardigans, scarves, and gloves, not very surprising considering the wintry time of the year.  For women, the most popular were bold statement necklaces (probably with equally-bold prices), decorated knitwear, and fur or leather items.  No special category was listed for men.  Does that mean another tie for Dad this year?

A gift card might be a better choice.  Dr. Anthony L. Liuzzo, Professor of Business and Economics and Director of the MBA Program at Wilkes University claims, “Sales of holiday gift cards have been increasing dramatically - at about 15% per year. In 2008, sales of gift cards amounted to approximately $25 billion, and are now the most popular category of present.”  That gift card seems to be a more impressive gift than cash since it does force the recipient to buy a gift for him- or herself.

As far as deals go on Black Friday, the best bet is electronics. Retailers often offer below-cost prices and interest-free credit on big-ticket items. PCs, laptops, iPods, GPS, TVs, and cell phones all will be inventory that retailers slash prices on to make room for newer items. Consumer Reports noted electronics as a top item for 2008: “If you’re among the folks-one in four Americans, according to a Consumer Reports National Research Center survey-who plan to head out shopping for Black Friday, chances are electronics is on your list; it was for 85 percent of the people we surveyed.”

Toys involve an even more strenuous effort, however, and are a mainstay for children’s gifts. Liuzzo says we shouldn’t expect to find deals on hot toys on Black  Friday: “those hard-to-get items, such as the ‘in’ toys, remain impossible to find, and are rarely discounted.”  The hottest toys don’t stay on the shelves long, and retailers know that just having them in stock lures shoppers - no sales promotions necessary.

Imported toy sales still beat out domestic, according to the US Census Bureau.  In 2006, “$3.4 billion [was the] total value of shipments for dolls, toys and games by manufacturers” in the US.  In contrast, from January to August 2008, imports totaled $4.9 billion. The Bureau reports, “China was the leading country of origin for stuffed toys coming into this country, as well as for a number of other popular holiday gifts. These include roller skates ($42 million), sports footwear ($136 million), golf equipment ($638 million) and basketballs ($31 million). China leads Indonesia as the leading supplier of ice skates ($42 million versus $10 million), with Thailand ranking third ($9 million).”  In tough economic times such as 2009, domestic-economy-minded people may make an extra effort to buy items manufactured in the US.

Toy Wishes Magazine, the guru guide for toys, publishes the highly-anticipated list of the top 12 toys predicted to be the hot kid items for the holiday season. The list is in alphabetical order and the price range is from as low as $7.99 to as high as $349.99. Look out for the Zhu Zhu pet hamsters this year. One plus is they won’t multiply and make do-do messes like the real ones.

Footnotes

“The 2008 Holiday Season.” US Census Bureau: Facts for Features. 30 Oct. 2008.  http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/012876.html

“Funfare Hot Dozen for 2009.” Toy Wishes. http://www.toywishes.com/

Niemira, Michael. “Media Watch. Holiday Guide: 2008″ International Council of Shopping Centers. 2008. http://holiday.icsc.org/2008/WatchMedia.pdf

Liuzzo, Anthony L. “Holiday Retail Sales Forecast: 2009.” Wilkes University. 3 Aug. 2009. http://www.wilkes.edu/Include/Latest_News/Holiday%20_Retail_Sales_Forecast%20_2009.pdf

Reynolds, Paul. “Black Friday: Shopping Help in Electronics.” 27 Nov. 2008. http://blogs.consumerreports.org/electronics/2008/11/black-friday-sh.html

COUPON TIME

Now that you know what to buy on Black Friday, you need to know where to buy it!  That’s where our Black Friday Sale Guide comes in.