by Robin Fiedler

All the talk about a weak economy and consumers spending less in 2009 for holiday shopping has led to retailers maintaining lower inventory levels. The National Retail Federation reports, "Retailers are compensating for soft sales this holiday season by cutting back on inventory. According to NRF's Port Tracker report, released in September, traffic to the nation's ports has scaled back to levels not seen since 2003."

What do lower inventory levels mean to consumers? "'In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers scaled back on inventory levels to prevent unplanned markdowns at the end of the season,' said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. 'Once the most popular items are gone, retailers won't have anywhere to get them, so if there was ever a holiday season to buy early, this is it.'" Does this mean consumers don't have the leverage of past years? money

Lower inventories would imply that shoppers have to buy early, especially for 'hot' high-demand items. Wallet Pop claims that less inventory "makes doorbusters -- those early morning sales -- all the more important this year for shoppers looking to find the best deals." Of course, consumers could just be tightening their budgets so much that there won't be as much demand. Thus, shelves would remain stocked.

They might. The NRF's BIGresearch survey reveals, "Two-thirds of Americans (65.3%) say the economy will affect their holiday plans this year, with the majority of these consumers saying they're adjusting by simply spending less (84.2%). People will also be shopping for sales more often (55.0%), using more coupons (41.7%)..." Retailers need to make sales and profits at the same time, and consumers are saying they aren't interested. Well, maybe for the right discounts and coupon savings, they will be.

So can we resist Wal*mart offering 100 toys for under $10 each? Can we resist computers under $500 and Plasma TVs under $1,000? Target's expanded dollar section? Wii consoles selling for just under $200? Discounted tools and appliances at Home Depot and Lowe's? Can we resist online retailers, such as Amazon.com, offering no tax, free shipping, price comparison and ratings on holiday gifts, plus comfort-of-your-home shopping? CVS and Walgreens discounting beauty items and decorations while being open 24 hours? All are deals rumored to be in the works, reports Walletpop.

So many questions, so few answers until after Black Friday. It's like the Superbowl of shopping. The build-up commentators are assessing the statistics and weighing the training on both sides. Consumers? Retailers? Who will be victorious? "...NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin [claims] 'This holiday season will be a bit of a dance between retailers and shoppers, with each group feeling the other out to understand how things have changed and how they must adapt.'"

Most retailers have not yet released their Black Friday Ads, just like the opposing team keeps its offensive plays top secret. There's one difference though:  retailers have to make the first move and reveal their strategy soon. Will shoppers be ready? Walletpop says, "Let the games begin."

Footnotes

"Black Friday Deals."  http://www.walletpop.com/specials/black-friday-deals

Grannis, Kathy. "Economy to Impact Two-Thirds of Families this Holiday Season, According to NRF Survey." National Retail Federation. 20 Oct. 2009. http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=News&op=viewlive&sp_id=806

COUPON TIME

Our Black Friday Coupons page is the best guide out there to the battle of the deals!